Gold & Silver: Opening Act or Curtain Call?

Signs the precious metals bull market is entering its final phase

Summary

• Gold and silver are in secular bull markets but may be nearing cyclical tops

• Technicals suggest gold is approaching levels consistent with prior peaks

• A detailed look at how I’ve navigated the bull market and my strategy from here

• I close by examining the highest conviction asset in my portfolio

[seven minute read]

Introduction

“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” —F. Scott Fitzgerald

Financial markets operate on two time horizons:

1. Secular—multi-decade cycles driven by structural forces

2. Cyclical—shorter term fluctuations within secular trends, often tied to business cycles or policy responses

A less abstract way to think about this is by analogy to seasons and weather.

Seasons produce long-lasting predictable patterns (secular), whereas day-to-day weather can fluctuate unpredictably (cyclical).

Gold and silver are in secular bull markets but may be nearing cyclical tops.

Secular Trend

The secular bull market in precious metals is defined by:

1. Softening appetite for U.S. treasuries amid deficit concerns

2. Financial repression—suppressing interest rates below inflation

3. The proven role of precious metals as a tool for wealth preservation

With the fiscal backdrop worsening, long term interest in precious metals is likely to persist.

In the short term, however, I have some concerns.

Cyclical Trend

In a recent interview with the widely followed Luke Gromen, he suggested gold could climb to $10,000-15,000/oz. in the near term, 350% above current levels.

Other notable precious metal bulls are floating similar figures.

Gold has doubled since 2024 and is up 63% in 2025, outperforming all asset classes.

Is trend extrapolation driving investor optimism?

Retail investors have suddenly become very interested in silver, and are notoriously late to the party.

The gold and silver charts look parabolic:

I follow a wide range of fund managers and market commentators. I am not aware of anyone calling for a top in precious metals.

All these signals have my attention that we may be nearing a cyclical top.

Bull Markets

Since the suspension of dollar-gold convertibility in 1971, there have been three notable bull markets in gold (measured from the bear market low to bull market peak):

1. 1971 - 1980

   1. Defined by (1) the end of the gold standard; (2) demographic tailwinds as baby boomers reached peak earning and household-formation years; and (3) elevated energy prices following the 1973 OPEC oil embargo.

   2. Duration: 10 years

2. 2001 - 2011

   1. Defined by China’s entry into the World Trade Organization and integration into global markets, catalyzing a decade-long commodities bull run.

   2. Duration: 10 years

3. 2016 - TBD

   1. Defined by the current era of fiscal dominance, pandemic stimulus, and financial repression.

   2. Duration: TBD

If history repeats, the current bull market would end in early 2026.

A Peak Inside My Portfolio

I started accumulating precious metals in mid-2018 at various prices over 13 months represented by the purple box in the chart below:

I decided the best expression of my bullish view was to own gold and silver miners.

Mining equities act as high beta proxies for the underlying metal—more upside during bull markets, more downside during bear markets.

I chose the following portfolio:

• GDX—broad basket of large gold miners

• GDXJ—diversified basket of junior miners, offering potential for higher returns through takeover premiums in bull markets

• NG—high-grade, large-scale Alaskan gold project in the early development phase

• PAAS—large, reputable Canadian silver miner with a proven management team

• AG—high beta silver miner priced at a discount due to profitability concerns

Between mid-2018 and early 2024, gold rose 35%, but miners traded sideways.

Because I chose a riskier portfolio, my positions were sitting at a loss.

Six years of sideways chop ultimately ending in losses—not to mention the opportunity cost of my capital.

I was demoralized.

But in March of 2024, I noticed something interesting.

Gold was confirming a significant technical breakout, but miners had not yet responded. I used the opportunity to double my position right before the bull market began in earnest.

In late 2025, I sold my positions in GDX and GDXJ.

Despite the painful start, my annual returns dating to mid-2018 outperformed gold, silver, and equities—even as NASDAQ and S&P posted strong gains.

In the weeks ahead, I will be selling my positions in AG and PAAS.

NG is a long-term hold for me, as I see it as a highly undervalued gold asset that can perform well even if gold prices decline. I’ll discuss this unique opportunity in my next post.

Conclusion

I see gold challenging $5,000/oz. and silver reaching $80–$100/oz.—likely the last gasp of a cyclical top.

Historical bear markets have led to 50% drawdowns in gold and 75%+ for silver.

If gold prices decline to $2,500-$3,000/oz., I will re-accumulate my positions.

If I’m wrong and gold prices continue ever higher from here, I will participate through my NG position and preserve my capital for another trade.

Cyclical bull markets are prone to rapid narrative changes.

I recall how hated gold was during most of the 2018-2024 period… a useless shiny rock.