What Worked, What Didn’t

A cross-asset market update and forward outlook

“Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.” —George Soros

[3 minute read]

Introduction

Markets don’t reward certainty. Perfection is an unrealistic goal. Instead, investing is a discipline of asymmetric outcomes, allowing winners to compound while ensuring mistakes remain small.

Despite countless hours of technical study, short term market timing was never interesting to me. My edge lies in seeing the long term future clearly, positioning for it, and constantly re-evaluating the thesis.

Despite recent market stress, none of my long term views have changed.

When a thesis remains intact, volatility can be looked at through the lens of opportunity.

With that backdrop, let’s review a few ideas we’ve recently discussed, and the potential path forward.

Strategy (MSTR)

I turned negative on Bitcoin in November. Despite my bearish outlook, I felt BTC was short term oversold, and I was looking for a bounce back towards $100k. I felt MSTR was even more oversold, crowded by shorts, and ripe for a short term reversal.

Bitcoin did bounce before a deeper selloff took hold, but MSTR never caught a bid. Time to move on.

Precious Metals

I came into 2025 very long precious metals. As the rally turned into a parabolic advance, I grew cautious. By January 23rd, I had liquidated 75% of my position and all of my silver.

Precious metals topped January 29th. Silver fell nearly 50% peak-to-trough over seven trading days. With that type of correction, I don’t expect precious metals to make new highs again for at least several months and perhaps all of 2026.

I chose to hold NovaGold (NG), with a long term price target of $20-28. Despite the correction, NG is down just 8% from when I laid out the investment thesis. I’m prepared for more volatility with no change to my long term view or positioning.

Bitcoin

I first turned negative on Bitcoin at $98k in mid-November.

Last week—with BTC trading just under $80k—I wrote about the potential for another 50% downside towards $40k. As of two days ago, we got half way there with BTC making an intraday low of $60k.

Bitcoin has since bounced, returning to over $70k as I type.

Is the bottom in?

I don’t think so, and I’m not in a rush to buy the dip just yet.

Crypto bear markets don’t typically make V-shaped recoveries like equities. Instead, they follow a pattern:

1. Deep selloff—skeptics and critics will once again remind you that crypto is a “scam” or “dead” … we are here now

2. Chop sideways with volatility

3. Form a base / bottom over several months

4. Begin a new ascent

I will be examining the daily chart for what pattern starts to emerge from here.

With Bitcoin down over 50% from its October high, we need to consider if a bottom is in. A bottom is not my central view, but an ascending pattern and subsequent breakout would support that.

My base case is the February 6th low of $60k won’t hold, but that we are getting close to a bottom. I’m looking for one more lower low into the $50s and potentially $40s.

If we make new lows, I’ll add to my position into that selloff. A subsequent higher low would confirm a bottom. Here’s what that scenario might look like:

For long-term investors, this drawdown is not a reason to reassess conviction, but a moment to express it.